The Protocol’s current impact on British-Irish relations and UK-EU relations is regarded by around three fifths of respondents (60% and 61% respectively) as negative, figures that are in line with the findings of the previous three polls. In June 2021, the figures were higher at 67% and 70% respectively.

The proportion of respondents seeing the Protocol’s current impact as negative on Northern Ireland’s constitutional position in the UK (49%) has risen slightly since the June 2022 poll (46%); the proportion seeing the Protocol’s current impact on Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market as negative remains unchanged at 47%. The proportions remain lower than in the October 2021 poll (when they were 57% and 54% respectively).

On the impact of the Protocol on ensuring ‘no diminution’ of individual rights as set out in the 1998 Agreement, the gap between those who see the current impact of the Protocol as positive (44%) and those who view the current impact as negative (38%) is closer than in June 2022 (48% positive and 37% negative respectively).

As in the previous polls, opinions have shifted on other topics. In the first poll (March 2021), only a third of respondents viewed the current impact of the Protocol as positive regarding the economy of Northern Ireland, the 1998 Agreement, and north-south cooperation. Now, in October 2022, the proportion is closer to half, although in each case the figure is lower by three or four percentage points than in June 2022.

On the question of the impact of the Protocol of the economy of Northern Ireland, 51% currently view it as positive (down from 55% in June 2022). Just under half of respondents (47%) view the current impact of the Protocol on protecting the 1998 Agreement as positive (down from 50% in June 2022); 39% view it as negative. As for north-south cooperation, the gap between those viewing the current impact of the Protocol as positive (45%) as opposed to negative (41%) has narrowed markedly since June 2022 (49% positive against 37% negative).

Written comments expressing positive and negative views

Views expressed in the optional written comments section of the poll were also divided. The reporting of these comments is not weighted to be representative. We note that TUV and Alliance Party supporters are over-represented in the unweighted sample, although we do not know of course from which supporters the comments come.

Among those expressing negative views of the Protocol in their comments, 20% are opposed to it in principle while 6% oppose its practical implications.^[4] The views expressed included:

“The protocol does nothing but create more tension by infringing on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the UK. The only good thing that come[s] from the protocol is the removal of the Belfast Agreement. We are reaching a point where Unionism is no longer prepared to accept mandatory coalition.”

“The protocol needs to be scrapped completely, not just tampered with.”

“No Irish Sea border. Scrap the protocol.”

“The protocol needs to be scrapped as it seriously impacts Northern Ireland’s constitutional position as part of the United Kingdom and Great Britain.”

“The Protocol is morally shameful, an administrative nightmare, damaging to the Northern Ireland economy, and strongly divisive.”

“No Irish Sea Border. The implementation of the protocol breaches the Good Friday Agreement.”

“I run a small business which I used to import a lot from GB, I now have about half the items I used to sell because they are a lot more expensive to buy from the EU, the protocol has halved my turnover so it's been disastrous for me.”

“I had a business before Brexit and the Protocol. Because of it I have had to close my business. I am now unemployed and in danger of loosing my home. Northern Ireland should not be separated in any way from GB.”

“My main concern is the democratic deficit created by the protocol since the north no longer has MEPs or a direct conduit to the European Commission. While not a major concern which would make me not support the protocol, I would still like to see it corrected by policy makers.”

Among those who present a positive view of the Protocol in their comments, 5% see it as a ‘least-worst’ mitigation in the context of Brexit; 7% see it as potentially beneficial for Northern Ireland if it can be implemented well, this group often link this to the need for political stability; 9% see the Protocol as already beneficial for Northern Ireland.

“Overall, the Protocol has been good for the NI economy. The DUP has no interest in sharing power with Sinn Fein whilst they are playing 2nd fiddle & are using the Protocol as an excuse for not returning to the Executive.”

“The politicians should listen more to the business community, the majority of who find the Protocol a positive for their businesses.”

“The protocol makes NI trading arrangements unique and if it is settled businesses will invest to gain dual access and NI place is UK secured as it will be only area of growth hence no UI as it would be too valuable economically to British government. No business would invest in GB as exporting too difficult issues at ports not publicised by mainstream media.”

“Brexit was a disaster for Northern Ireland and the UK. The Protocol needs adjustment but not removal.”

“Brexit has been disastrous but the protocol (with agreed amendments) could be beneficial to the economy of Northern Ireland.”

“The protocol is the best of a bad deal. Political Unionism needs to own its mistakes and stop holding other parties to ransom over a protocol that cannot be changed in any way in Northern Ireland. It is the responsibility of Westminster.”

”We, in NI, were learning to live together in peace, since 1998. The brexit arrangements were drawn up between UK and EU governments. All done in good faith. Now let us make the best of this situation. We can live together, as a functioning part of the UK, with every advantage that protocol arrangements afford”

“Brexit was a huge mistake for the people of Northern Ireland and the UK, and has caused massive harm to the UK economy.”

”Brexit is what damages relations. Truly disastrous for NI. Protocol isn’t perfect but helps us avoid the worst repercussions.”

Concerns regarding the operation of the Protocol

Previous polls have sought to identify those aspects of the Protocol and its implementation that cause most concern to voters. The main issues raised related to the impact of the Protocol on the availability of medicines in Northern Ireland and the customs paperwork required for the movement of goods from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. These were followed by the lack of involvement of elected representatives, officials, and civic society from Northern Ireland in the governance of the Protocol.

This latest poll, like the June 2022 poll, adopted a slightly different approach, establishing first whether the respondents have concerns about the Protocol’s full operational scope and impact. A majority (56%) said they do have concerns about the full operational scope of the Protocol (i.e. without current grace periods and assuming full implementation) and its impact. The proportion is similar to June 2022 (55%). 32% of respondents said they have no such concerns (see Figure 3). In June, 36% of respondents said they had no such concerns.

Figure 3. Do you have any concerns about the Protocol’s full operational scope and impact?

* Includes Not Sure/No Opinion

Those with concerns were then asked to indicate how concerned they were about eight issues. We selected these issues as those that relate most closely to the UK Government’s concerns and to the end of the grace periods.

The issue of most concern to this 56% of respondents was, as in June, customs declarations for parcels being moved into Northern Ireland from Great Britain. Of those indicating concern, 64% indicated they were ‘highly concerned’ about this matter. This translates to 36% of the total weighted sample being ‘highly concerned’ about customs declarations being required under the Protocol for parcels moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. Other issues of most concern were potential restrictions on plants, seeds and chilled meats being brought into Northern Ireland from Great Britain (see Figure 4). The order of concern is the same as in June 2022.

Figure 4. Relative importance of issues for the 56% of voters with concerns about the full scope and impact of the Protocol, i.e. without current grace periods and assuming full implementation

(10 = Highly Concerned, 1 = Not Concerned at All)

Northern Ireland’s alignment with EU standards on goods is the issue of least concern to the 56% of respondents to the poll with concerns, and at 42% is lower than in June 2022 (47%). There was also a slight increase in the proportion of those with concerns about the scope and impact of the Protocol if it were fully implemented having no concerns on either the alignment issue (22% against 20% in June 2022) or the jurisdiction of the EU Court of Justice (18% against 16% in June 2022).

Information about Brexit and the Protocol

In each of the previous polls, around three-quarters of respondents have claimed a good understanding of the Protocol even though less than half have maintained that reliable information exists on the Protocol. The latest poll asked what sources of information on Brexit and the Protocol respondents use and how reliable they consider each of these sources.

The most widely used sources are on radio and television with news programmes being the most frequently used (61%), slightly ahead of talk/discussion programmes (57%). Such sources are, however, only regarded as reliable by 53% and 45% respectively of respondents. The most reliable sources of information on Brexit and the Protocol, according to two thirds of respondents (76%) are political parties for which respondents would consider voting (see Figure 5). Half of respondents (51%) indicate that they use such political parties frequently for their information on Brexit and the Protocol.

Figure 5. Reliability of Information Sources for Providing Factual and Fact-based Analysis of Brexit and the Protocol

Also, among the most reliable sources on Brexit and the Protocol are business organisations (67% of respondents regard them as reliable), official websites such as those of the UK government, the Northern Ireland Assembly and the European Commission (62%) and academic/think tank publications and websites (58%). These sources, however, are among the least used. Only one quarter of respondents access them frequently.

The sources of information frequently accessed the least are civil society organizations (16%), although they are viewed as more reliable (43%) than newspapers and magazines (40%) which are frequently accessed by 42% of respondents, a rate marginally below that of social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) which is seen as the most unreliable source of information by almost three quarters (72%) of respondents.

Trust to manage the interests of Northern Ireland vis-à-vis the Protocol

Implementation of the Protocol involves a range of actors. As with all five previous polls, the only group that is trusted by a majority to manage the interests of Northern Ireland with respect to the Protocol are Northern Ireland’s business representatives (57%) (see Figure 6). The level of trust is slightly down on the 60% in June 2002, the highest figure to date.

Trust in the UK government when it comes to managing the interests of Northern Ireland with respect to the Protocol continues to be very low (7%), although it is the highest of the six polls conducted. More than four fifths of respondents (84%) continue to distrust the UK government. A majority continue to distrust it ‘a lot’ (49%) although this is an improvement on the 55% in June 2022.

By contrast, trust to manage the Protocol in the interests of Northern Ireland remains at 47% for the European Commission/EU and at 45% for the Irish government. However, views are sharply divided, with 43% distrusting both the EU and Irish government. Only around 10% hold no opinion on whether they can trust these actors or not.

Figure 6. Levels of trust in/distrust of actors to manage the interests of Northern Ireland with respect to the Protocol

Trust in the Northern Ireland Executive to manage the interests of Northern Ireland with respect to the Protocol remains strikingly low (13%) and has fallen by almost one-third since June 2022 (19%). Only the UK Government suffers lower levels of trust. Moreover, although between the two previous polls there was a slight drop in levels of distrust to 44%, in this latest poll, the proportion of respondents who distrust the Northern Ireland Executive to manage Northern Ireland’s interests has risen markedly to 52%

As for the five political parties that formed the last Northern Ireland Executive, the Alliance Party has seen the level of trust in it drop from 50% in June to 42% with the gap between ‘trust/trust a lot’ and ‘distrust/distrust a lot’ widening from one percentage point to 12 percentage points. It remains, along with the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) (43% trust/trust a lot – unchanged) one of the two most trusted of the five political parties considered here. Distrust in the SDLP has also risen (43%) since June (38%) and is now similar to the level of distrust in the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) (40%). Trust in the UUP (29%) remains steady; almost a third of respondents (31%) remain undecided on whether they trust the UUP to manage Northern Ireland’s interests on Brexit and the Protocol. Two thirds of respondents (67%) continue to distrust the DUP, with a majority (51%) also distrusting Sinn Féin.

Written comments on politics and political parties in Northern Ireland

Comments provided by respondents for this poll included some general and specific criticisms of politics in Northern Ireland. There was, however, significant criticism of the DUP, with 13% of optional written responses focusing on the party’s approach to the Protocol and its decision not to enter a new Executive in protest against the Protocol:

“Tell the DUP that I can't eat or heat my house with the protocol.”

“Disagree with the DUP's boycott of the NI assembly. MLAs should not be paid if they're not sitting.”

“The DUP, not the protocol, is having a negative impact on political stability, British-Irish relations, and EU-UK relations.”

“Get the Assembly back to work and if the DUP don’t want to play then let them step aside.”

“The DUP are a disgrace the way they are treating all the electorate.”

“The DUP are the main obstacle in any progression to compromise.”

Alongside comments directed at the DUP, 13% of submitted comments stated general opposition to the lack of fully functioning devolved government in Northern Ireland at present:

“We are in an economic crisis and even though the assembly has not proven to be of much use over the years it does need to be in operation and it is abhorrent that one party is holding the country to ransom and I speak as a unionist voter for which the Dup does not represent my views as a Remainer.”

“MLAs need to get back work immediately. DUP veto is unacceptable and is not democratic. NI voters expressed their strong desire to remain in EU and this should be respected by UK Govt.”

“The information I am aware of reflects the protocol as a net positive in terms of our economy and growth in NI. However personally I think it takes away from the real issues facing our society currently and politicians need to get back to work to address areas such as the cost of living, energy crisis, inflation and supporting our public sector staff and Health Service going into the winter months.”

“Time for political parties to get back to work regardless of their issues with protocol.”

“The DUP's boycott from Stormont has nothing to do with the protocol. They're punishing local people here, who have no control over the protocol negotiations. It's time they got back to work.”

“The protocol is being used as an excuse by some political parties to not do any work. These parties are happy to have different laws than the rest of the UK for gay marriage, abortion, conversion therapy, language rights, corporation tax, defamation, hunting, water charges.”

Views expressed in the comments were, however, divided with a small number also stating support for the DUP’s refusal to nominate a speaker to the Northern Ireland Assembly or a deputy First Minister to the Northern Ireland Executive over the Protocol. For example:

“Stormont shouldn’t return until the Protocol is removed.”

“The NI executive should not sit in Stormont until the protocol is abolished.”

These views are also reflected in the quantitative results of this polling, as discussed below.

Democratic consent and MLAs

The future of core provisions of the Protocol – those relating primarily to the movement of goods (i.e. Articles 5-10) – is subject to the democratic consent of members of the Northern Ireland Assembly (MLAs) in a vote that is to be held up to every four years. MLAs will first vote in November/December 2024.

Most respondents (91%) have a view on how they wish their MLAs to vote: 50% in favour of the continued application of Articles 5-10 and 41% against (see Figure 7). These mirror the figures from October 2021 and so once again confirm the marked gap in views that has emerged since the June 2021 poll when voters were split almost evenly (46% in favour and 45% against).

Figure 7. How would you like the MLAs you voted for in the most recent Assembly election to vote in the democratic consent vote on the Protocol in 2024?

These latest figures show considerable continuity in the positions expressed since our polling began in early 2021 (see Figure 8), although the margin between the two positions has narrowed from its largest to date in the June 2022 poll.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 8. Comparing views on the ‘democratic consent vote’ over the six polls

As in most previous polls we asked how a candidate’s position on the Protocol might affect a respondent’s willingness to vote for them. If there were an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly in the next four months, the position of a candidate would be a factor for more than four fifths (84%) of respondents. Of these, just over a third (35%) would vote for candidates either opposed to consent in 2024 (11%) or wanting to see the Protocol scrapped (24%) (see Figure 9). This is in line with the February 2022 poll when the proportion of respondents was 37% and a just over a quarter overall (27%) wanting the Protocol scrapped.

 

Figure 9. If an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly were to take place in the next 4 months, how important would an MLA's position on the Protocol be to your vote?

In terms of support for consent in 2024, just over a third of respondents (37%) would vote for candidates in favour of the continued application of the Protocol, with the proportion rising to almost half (49%) if the UK and EU agree to minimal GB-NI checks and controls. When a similar question was asked in February 2022, 43% said they will only vote for candidates in favour of the continued application of Articles 5-10 of the Protocol. The response in this latest poll highlights the significance of the UK and EU reaching an agreement on ensuring that there are only minimal GB-NI checks and controls under the Protocol.

Agreement between the UK and the EU on reducing GB-NI checks and controls will be important for the 2024 democratic consent vote. Although 28% of respondents would still oppose the continued application of the Protocol, support for continued application could rise to 69% in the light of a UK-EU agreement (see Figure 10). However, this would depend significantly on whether there were minimal checks – in which case support could rise to 52% – and what the implications were for Northern Ireland’s economy. Such potential reflects responses to whether respondents think, ‘[p]rovided the UK and the EU agree further flexibilities regarding its implementation, the Protocol could be good for Northern Ireland in the longer term’; 62% agreed; 28% disagreed.

Figure 10. If the UK and the EU agreed a reduction on required checks and controls on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, how would you like MLAs to vote in 2024 on the Protocol?

Public opinion on what might come next

The final section of the poll involved a re-run of some questions regarding the possibility of unilateral action by the UK government on the Protocol, and some questions on the significance of recent political developments for the Protocol.

A first set of questions concerned views on the ongoing UK-EU dispute over the Protocol. Responses reveal a clear majority (71%) in favour of a negotiated EU-UK settlement of outstanding issues regarding the implementation of the Protocol rather than the UK taking unilateral action (see Figure 11). One fifth of respondents (22%) disagree. The corresponding figures in June 2022 were 74% and 18%.

Figure 11 A negotiated UK-EU solution to the outstanding issues with the Protocol is preferable to the UK taking unilateral action

News that the UK and the EU are now once again engaged in talks on seeking to resolve outstanding issues over the Protocol is not, however, a cause for widespread optimism. Just under half of respondents (46%) are optimistic about an acceptable solution being found, while a third (34%) are not.

In terms of issues raised as part of the dispute, a narrow majority (53%) is content with the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice being ‘a price worth paying for unhindered access to the EU’s single market for goods’. Almost two fifths (39%) disagree, with the remainder being undecided or of no opinion.

A second set of questions considered issues arising from the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill that is currently being considered in the House of Lords, having secured the approval of MPs in July. A core feature of the bill is to enable UK ministers to disapply core elements of the Protocol. A majority of respondents (59%) do not think the UK government would be justified in taking such unilateral action to disapply core elements of the Protocol, even if in doing so the UK would be in breach of international law (see Figure 12). A similar question in June elicited a similar sized majority (57%).^[5] Over a third of respondents (36%) agreed that the UK would be justified in taking such action; in June the proportion was similar (38%).

Figure 12 The UK government would be justified in taking unilateral action to disapply core elements of the Protocol, as per its NI Protocol Bill, even if this is in breach of international law

And if the UK government did take unilateral action, would the EU be justified in taking retaliatory action, including potentially suspending the trade provisions of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement? Half of respondents (52%) agreed that it would be justified; 37% disagreed (Figure 13). Again, the figures are in line with the responses to a similar question asked in June 2022, when 55% agreed that the EU would be justified in taking unilateral action and 35% disagreed.^[6]

Figure 13 The EU would be justified in taking retaliatory action, including potentially suspending the trade provisions of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, if the UK unilaterally disapplied elements of the Protocol

On whether, through the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, the UK government should grant its ministers discretionary powers to legislate in place of the Protocol without the need for prior parliamentary approval, a majority of respondents (56%) also disagreed. Fewer than one in three (29%) agreed.

And in relation to the UK proposal for a dual regulatory regime that would allow goods in Northern Ireland to be produced and/or sold according to UK or EU standards, views were almost evenly split on whether respondents would like to have the choice of purchasing goods in Northern Ireland that do not conform to EU standards: 40% agreed, 42% disagreed.

A third set of questions considered views on the establishment of a Northern Ireland Executive in the light of the current situation with the Protocol. 30% of respondents agreed with the proposition that the Northern Ireland Executive should not be established until the Protocol is scrapped altogether; two-thirds (66%) disagreed. Almost the same proportion (65%) were of the view that the Northern Ireland Executive should be ‘fully functioning regardless of what happens on the Protocol’; almost a third (32%) disagreed. In the case of both questions the number of ‘neutral’ or ‘no opinion’ responses was low (≤ 4%).

A final question was whether voters believe official US government pronouncements on the Protocol and the 1998 Agreement have been helpful. Views were evenly split: 44% agree, 44% disagreed.

Notes

The full report can be downloaded here: